Financial and Agroclimatic Determinants of Agricultural Resilience in Senegal: A Logit Analysis (1960-2024)

Yamadou Faty, Ndiouma Ndour

This paper investigates the financial and agroclimatic determinants of agricultural resilience in Senegal over 1960-2024, addressing whether agricultural finance constitutes a resilience lever as robust as, or more robust than, climatic conditions themselves. Resilience is measured through a composite index converted into a binary outcome and estimated with a logit model. Agricultural credit has a positive and statistically robust association with the probability of resilience, raising it by about 0.269 percentage point per unit increase. The model shows strong predictive ability, with 81.5% classification accuracy and a ROC-AUC of 0.901. In conclusion, agricultural finance emerges as the most robust resilience lever identified in this specification, ahead of agroclimatic variables, which supports designing agricultural credit policy explicitly as a climate adaptation instrument.